US Presidential Election overview: Chaotic election

Current status; While Biden has 238 delegates who have been finalized, Trump has so far secured 213 delegates, from the states whose count has ended. (Tera Yatırım)

The count is not over in 7 states. Delegates from Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will determine who will be President. The states except Nevada are currently in light red color… Biden needs to turn at least two of them to blue, and Trump will be able to take the presidency if he does not miss at least 2 of them.

 

Contrary to the "Blue Wave" theory that has been brought to the fore in the market until the last moment, we are watching the American elections that become chaotic. Especially after the situation in critical states made Trump a favorite, the main asset classes and major currencies started to take the election uncertainty, and the emerging countries started to take the Trump victory as the base scenario and price. However, the market has not yet crossed the first threshold: Whether the election uncertainty ends or not.

 

Trump in his election announcement; He said they are doing well in states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, whose vote counts are not over yet, that they have won this election and will go to the Supreme Court. This process will get messy. Considering that Biden is also hopeful of the victory and that a close election has passed, the objections, recount and Supreme Court process will prolong the matter and cause uncertainty. It was the most undesirable situation, otherwise the uncertainty resolved would find a positive reflection, whether it was a Trump win or a Biden win. We will have to make the inference for situations such as financial expansion package, trade wars, relations with the EU, Russia, the Mexican wall, the fight against Covid-19, the green economy, and the reflection of economic developments on the Fed policy when the President and Senate are determined.

 

The Biden + Blue Wave was the most favorable outcome, as it meant a large financial expansion package. However, the chaotic scenario is active now, so this very essential issue will wait a bit. Trump's staying on the seat may also mean that January would not be waited in terms of action on the financial package, but since we can see a court process, this cannot be predicted at this stage. The last time we saw the uncertainty of the election results in the USA was in the election between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000, it took a few days for the results to become clear. In 2004 and beyond (including Trump defeated Hillary in 2016), the results were immediately apparent and there was no uncertainty.

 

US futures indices are volatile, Dow futures are negative, and Nasdaq is up close to 2.5% with a Trump win optimism. We have said that the Nasdaq will not participate in a market rally that will occur with the Biden win, and Trump's prospect of winning was positively received by technology companies. Because while Biden's tax policies require American tech giants to pay more taxes, Trump will mean continue to pay low taxes for them. As the Blue Wave prospect waned, the prospect of the Trump President and the Republican Senate became more likely. However, as the objection process and postal votes will prolong the process, it seems that the net scenario may be formed towards the end of the week. The Senate is as important as the President… The race goes head to head there.

 

One last word for polls… We see that the surveys have been seriously mistaken for the last 4-5 years. The 2016 US elections, the Brexit vote and now the 2020 US elections are the most obvious examples of this… Is the sample not chosen correctly, is the methodology problematic, or is the public being guided by these polls? No comment..

 

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