Turkey: Unemployment rate remains low due to the narrow definition.

In August, the unemployment rate in Turkey was realized as 13.2% compared to the same month last year’s 14%, with a decrease of 0.8 points. (Tera Yatırım)

When compared to the previous month, it is seen that the unadjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 points. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was announced as 13.2%, decreasing 0.8 points compared to the same month of the previous year and 0.3 points compared to the previous month. According to the adjusted data, while the unemployment rate among the youth is 25.7%; Non-agricultural unemployment stood at 15.4%.

 

When we look at the comparable periods August 2019 - August 2020, it is seen that there is a 3.3-point decrease in the labor force participation rate between the related periods with adjusted data. The workforce, which was 32 million 526 thousand people in the similar period of 2019, reached 31 million 53 thousand people in August 2020. The labor force participation rate has decreased from 52.8% to 49.5%. Looking at the seasonally adjusted data; While the employment rate decreased by 2.4 points compared to the same period of the previous year and became 43%, there was an increase of 280 thousand people in seasonally adjusted employment compared to the previous month. In this period, seasonally adjusted employment increased by 22,000 people in the agricultural sector, 106,000 people in the industrial sector, 9,000 people in the construction sector, and 144,000 people in the service sector, according to economic activity.

 

It is a positive sign that the unemployment rate fell compared to last year with headline and adjusted figures. Since the 3Q20 period is a recovery period compared to the pandemic effects felt in 2Q20, it is normal to have a slight recovery effect from the increasing economic activity. On the other hand, it is observed that there is a serious deterioration in the labor force participation and employment rates compared to the previous year. The fact that this situation is not reflected in the headline unemployment figures is due to the difference between those who do not actually work and those who are deemed unemployed according to the unemployment definition of TURKSTAT. During the pandemic, when the economy was shrinking and stagnating, those who did not look for a job, gave up hope of finding a job, were taken on unpaid leave and were not in charge made this difference. The upcoming period will continue to be monitored through the reflection of the recovery effect on the labor market. The increase in the epidemic will make the recovery in the labor market difficult. The most important reason for the unemployment rate not increasing in this period, the dismissal ban and continuing unpaid leaves will prevent a dramatic increase.

 

Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı

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