The BRSA went to revision in terms of the asset ratio criterion applicable to banks at the weekend. First of all, if we share the current version of the formula;
In the numerator part; changes are made in the criteria of loans and short-term consumer loans are excluded. SME loans, project finance loans or other investment loans will be multiplied by the 1.1 coefficient. This highlights commercial loans as a direct way to achieve ratio and aims to ensure that banks weigh their loans not in consumer loans, but in commercial loans.
In the denominator section; Coefficient of 1 will be used for the FX loan matching part of the deposit and 1.75 for the unmatched part of the deposit. This aims to distribute FX deposits as loans as much as possible or to increase the tendency to TRY deposits. Since the non-loan part of the FX deposit will be multiplied by 1.75, it will grow the denominator and it will be difficult to achieve the ratio. One way to ensure the ratio is to shrink the denominator; either banks have to switch from FX to TRY deposits, or they will shrink total deposits. This would mean that deposit rates would drop. For TRY deposits, the interest, which is currently in the 6 - 7% band, may fall to the 5 - 6% band, which reduces the attractiveness of the deposit as it coincides with half the current inflation. On the FX deposit side, negative interest rates may also be considered in the coming period. There is also a tax disadvantage within the framework of new regulations in foreign exchange and gold purchases.
Since it will not be very fast to focus on commercial loans; banks will focus on securities purchases again in order to achieve ratios in the first place. This will mean that the demand for bonds will increase rapidly, especially with the effect of this demand, the 2-year bond yield will be suppressed.
Source: Tera Menkul
Hibya News Agency